In Silico Quantification of Intersubject Variability on Aerosol Deposition in the Oral Airway.

The extrathoracic oral airway is not only a major mechanical barrier for pharmaceutical aerosols to reach the lung but also a major source of variability in lung deposition. Using computational fluid dynamics, deposition of 1−30 µm particles was predicted in 11 CT-based models of the oral airways of adults. Simulations were performed for mouth breathing during both inspiration and expiration at two steady-state flow rates representative of resting/nebulizer use (18 L/min) and of dry powder inhaler (DPI) use (45 L/min). Consistent with previous in vitro studies, there was a large intersubject variability in oral deposition. For an optimal size distribution of 1−5 µm for pharmaceutical aerosols, our data suggest that >75% of the inhaled aerosol is delivered to the intrathoracic lungs in most subjects when using a nebulizer but only in about half the subjects when using a DPI. There was no significant difference in oral deposition efficiency between inspiration and expiration, unlike subregional deposition, which shows significantly different patterns between the two breathing phases. These results highlight the need for incorporating a morphological variation of the upper airway in predictive models of aerosol deposition for accurate predictions of particle dosimetry in the intrathoracic region of the lung.

A Novel Framework for Modeling Person-to-Person Transmission of Respiratory Diseases.

From the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, researchers assessed the impact of the disease in terms of loss of life, medical load, economic damage, and other key metrics of resiliency and consequence mitigation; these studies sought to parametrize the critical components of a disease transmission model and the resulting analyses were informative but often lacked critical parameters or a discussion of parameter sensitivities. Using SARS-CoV-2 as a case study, we present a robust modeling framework that considers disease transmissibility from the source through transport and dispersion and infectivity. The framework is designed to work across a range of particle sizes and estimate the generation rate, environmental fate, deposited dose, and infection, allowing for end-to-end analysis that can be transitioned to individual and population health models. In this paper, we perform sensitivity analysis on the model framework to demonstrate how it can be used to advance and prioritize research efforts by highlighting critical parameters for further analyses.

Seroconversion and fever are dose-dependent in a nonhuman primate model of inhalational COVID-19.

While evidence exists supporting the potential for aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the infectious dose by inhalation remains unknown. In the present study, the probability of infection following inhalation of SARS-CoV-2 was dose-dependent in a nonhuman primate model of inhalational COVID-19. The median infectious dose, assessed by seroconversion, was 52 TCID50 (95% CI: 23-363 TCID50), and was significantly lower than the median dose for fever (256 TCID50, 95% CI: 102-603 TCID50), resulting in a group of animals that developed an immune response post-exposure but did not develop fever or other clinical signs of infection. In a subset of these animals, virus was detected in nasopharyngeal and/or oropharyngeal swabs, suggesting that infected animals without signs of disease are able to shed virus and may be infectious, which is consistent with reports of asymptomatic spread in human cases of COVID-19. These results suggest that differences in exposure dose may be a factor influencing disease presentation in humans, and reinforce the importance of public health measures that limit exposure dose, such as social distancing, masking, and increased ventilation. The dose-response data provided by this study are important to inform disease transmission and hazard modeling, and, ultimately, mitigation strategies. Additionally, these data will be useful to inform dose selection in future studies examining the efficacy of therapeutics and vaccines against inhalational COVID-19, and as a baseline in healthy, young adult animals for assessment of the importance of other factors, such as age, comorbidities, and viral variant, on the infectious dose and disease presentation.